Bill Noble, Senior Market Analyst, Token Metrics
The Market Update is centered around using technical analysis to successfully and responsibly navigate the crypto market. It is not intended to be a trading calls newsletter. While technical analysis is an extremely powerful tool, please be aware that it can be temporarily disrupted by large news events.
Total Crypto Market Cap – Weekly Chart
Data as of 2/10/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
The total cryptocurrency market cap (TOTAL) currently sits just below $2 trillion, down roughly 50% from its all-time high of $3 trillion. In order for crypto to break out on the upside, TOTAL needs to rise above the $2 trillion level.
Total Altcoin Market Cap – Weekly Chart
Data as of 2/10/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
Total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) is currently sitting above the $700 billion level. The bearish head and shoulders pattern has been invalidated as of midday on 2/10/2022.. If TOTAL3 remains above $700 billion we see the chance of another leg higher. As always, we would emphasize proper risk management.
AVAX – Daily Chart
Data as of 2/10/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
As we said last week, Solana, Near, AVAX, SAND, and MANA could embark on a very large rally. AVAX has shown resilience both and after the CPI release. The Token Metrics fundamental team has done extensive research on AVAX. AVAX has some unique properties that could make AVAX stand out from other Layer 1 solutions. On the daily chart, AVAX is holding support at $87. AVAX could move to $96 and possibly make a new high. The risk to the view is that the inflation statistic upset the bond market.
Bitcoin 8-hour Chart
Data as of 2/10/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
In Bitcoin, dips to $43,000 or $41,000 may be seen as opportunities by bulls. If Bitcoin moves above $45,000, it could start an up move to $49,650
Ethereum – Weekly Chart
Data as of 2/10/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
Ethereum is hovering near an important trend line. If ETH breaks out above $3,333 that could produce more upside.
Ethereum 8-hour chart
Data as of 2/3/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
If there is a dip to $3,000 that level would be strong support.
ETH/BTC – Weekly Chart
Data as of 2/3/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
ETH/BTC has reached strong support at .07 ETH could start to dramatically outperform BTC on any future rally. Looking at the chart, ETH/BTC could be consolidating for a move to .09. This is probably the most bullish chart in the crypto space right now. Looking at the numbers, BTC could find resistance near $48,000 or $49,000 while ETH has an outside chance of moving to resistance at $4,300.
Key Takeaways:
- Any Fed rate hike in March will still leave QE in place, even if the Fed does taper asset purchases. Most of the inflation is being created by higher food and energy prices. The Fed has limited control over those markets. If Fed fears fade, crypto could have one last leg higher.
- We expect the NFT and metaverse uptrend to continue and even accelerate during the second half of February. There is a chance metaverse coins and select Layer 1s could embark on a fast, vertical rally. AVAX is of particular interest.
- We continue to see any sharp dip over the weekend as an opportunity.
