Report Date: March 3rd, 2022
Bill Noble, Senior Market Analyst, Token Metrics
The Market Update is centered around using technical analysis to successfully and responsibly navigate the crypto market. It is not intended to be a trading calls newsletter. While technical analysis is an extremely powerful tool, please be aware that it can be temporarily disrupted by large news events.
Total Crypto Market Cap – Weekly Chart
Data as of 3/2/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
Looking at a weekly time frame for total cryptocurrency market cap (TOTAL), we see one important level to watch. A weekly close above $2.07 trillion would be a sign a new bull market has begun. If TOTAL remains below that level, we may have to be patient and wait for the next set of signals to develop.
Total Alt Market Cap – Weekly Chart
Data as of 3/2/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
The total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) is currently sitting near the key pivot at $700 billion. The bearish head and shoulders pattern is still in effect. Altcoins as a group need to do more work to invalidate the bearish pattern. If TOTAL3 can climb above $700 billion, it would be a very hopeful sign. Nobody likes waiting, but that may be the best course of action when it comes to speculative altcoins.
Bitcoin – 8-hour Chart
Data as of 03/03/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
Looking at the 8-hour chart of Bitcoin, there is resistance at $46,500 and $44,800. Support is at $41,000. It may make sense to check the nature of the dips before making bold decisions. We are inclined to be patient and see if support holds.
Ethereum 8-Hour Chart
Data as of 03/03/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
In Ethereum, resistance is at $3,007 and $3,140. Support is at $2,840 and $2,697. Support near $2,700 needs to hold for altcoins to be stable.
Ethereum – Weekly Chart
Data as of 03/03/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
On the Ethereum weekly chart, $2,936 is a very important level. If ETH achieves a weekly close above this point, the chart picture would be more positive. If ETH can not close above this point, then the waiting game continues.
Legacy Chart of the Week – U.S. Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil – Weekly
Data as of 03/02/2022 – Past performance not indicative of future returns
Looking at the weekly chart of U.S. crude (CL1), oil may still have more upside. As sanctions kick in and the military situation worsens, it is conceivable that oil can head to its upside target near $128. The relationship between oil and crypto may have changed. If rising oil means the geopolitical situation is getting worse, that could drive demand for crypto. So, rising oil may now be bullish for crypto.
Key takeaways:
- Crypto may have decoupled from stocks. It will be a positive development if stocks go down and BTC is able to push above $46,000. Time will tell.
- BTC bounced off $34,000 as we expected. The rally also went farther than we thought. The next surprise might be that dips are shallower than people expect. That said, global regulators may start to make noise about crypto being used to avoid sanctions. So practice smart risk management.
- The one positive for crypto is that recent geopolitical developments may allow the Fed to keep printing money for the foreseeable future. European banks that have lent money to Russia are in trouble, and the Fed and ECB may have to prioritize saving the system over trying to fight inflation.
- Buying support is better than buying resistance.
