$300B Stablecoins, $121K BTC: Uptober's Record Rally

Happy Friday, TM Family!

Welcome to the Token Metrics Research | Daily newsletter, where we cover key market movements, regulatory updates, and early alpha for our readers and investors. 

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Now let's get back to the top stories of the day.

Bitcoin shattered the $121,000 barrier on Thursday, its highest since mid-August, amid a 10% weekly rally that outpaced broader markets despite the U.S. government shutdown.

This push aligns with strengthening accumulation trends, as Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score climbed to 0.62, the first sustained reading above 0.5 since August, driven by mid-tier wallets (10-1,000 BTC) shifting to net buying.

Institutional flows are fueling the fire: BlackRock's IBIT ETF notched $1B in daily inflows, pushing U.S. Bitcoin ETFs to $2.25B weekly and nearing $60B cumulative since January. Ethereum ETFs followed suit with $1B weekly inflows, including a $485M streak for BlackRock's ETHA.

JPMorgan analysts now forecast that BTC will hit $165,000 by year-end, citing a $46,000 undervaluation relative to volatility-adjusted gold amid the "debasement trade" driven by retail hedging against deficits and inflation.

With October historically averaging 14% gains in BTC since 2013, and weak labor data hinting at Fed easing (with 98% odds of a quarter-point cut), we're eyeing sustained upside. Watch for whale distribution (holders with more than 10,000 BTC still selling) as a potential cap.

For investors, this reinforces BTC as a non-sovereign reserve asset; allocate tactically but hedge with options OI now at $38B on IBIT alone.

tablecoins crossed a historic $300B market cap for the first time, hitting $301B with a 6.5% monthly surge, underscoring capital inflows amid crypto's rebound. Tether's USDT dominates at 58% ($176.3B), followed by USDC at 24.5% ($74B), reflecting a 20% quarterly growth rate that outpaces traditional assets.

This milestone aligns with policy tailwinds, such as the U.S. GENIUS Act, which clarifies stablecoin regulations but prohibits direct yields from issuers. However, exchanges can still offer them, sparking a bank-vs-crypto lobbying battle.

Meanwhile, BNB broke $1,100 with a market-beating rally, boosting ecosystem tokens like CAKE (up 30%) and ASTER (up 18%), as liquidity concentrates on fee-generating protocols like PancakeSwap ($1.3M daily fees).

For our audience, this highlights stablecoins as a foundational base for DeFi and recommends monitoring USDT/USDC for yield opportunities.

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Now, let's continue with the top stories of the day.

a's ecosystem is heating up with treasury moves: Australia's Fitell Corporation bought 216.8 million PUMP tokens for $1.5M, following a $100M convertible note to build SOL holdings.

Sharps Technology, another Solana DAT, eyes a $100M share buyback with 2 million SOL ($448M) in reserves, backed by investors like ParaFi and Pantera.

Crypto. com partnered with SOL Strategies for custody and validator services, securing >CAD $1B in delegated assets and boosting CRO 7% post-announcement.

Adding fuel, Moonbirds NFTs are launching the BIRB token on Solana, driving its floor price to 4 ETH ($15,450) as part of the "culture coins" trend. These plays highlight institutional Solana adoption, with treasuries diversifying into memecoins and infrastructure.

Solana's scalability yields returns through structured products; watch for validator revenue growth, but note the risks associated with small-cap investments.

is set for 24/7 crypto futures/options trading in early 2026, following Q3 records of 340,000 daily contracts ($14.1B notional) and Ether futures at 236,000. This reduces offshore reliance, with Solana/XRP options launching on October 16.

On DeFi, Lighter's public mainnet features Ethereum-settled zk perps (with 188,000 beta users). At the same time, DoubleZero's mainnet-beta (with a 10B 2Z supply) offers low-latency routing that outperforms the internet on 82% of routes. Additionally, the SEC has issued a no-action letter deeming 2Z non-security.

The ECB has selected providers for digital euro components, aiming for an end-of-decade launch by the end of the decade to rival private stablecoins. The U.S. shutdown delays ETF approvals and progress on the GENIUS Act, but the Senate continues to push forward with market structure bills.

For investors, 24/7 CME enhances risk management. Zk/DePIN advances could disrupt perpetuals, but regulatory lags may cap near-term flows, favoring regulated derivatives for hedging.

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That's all for today. Let's talk tomorrow.