Bitcoin Smashes All-Time High: Market Trends and Insights

Happy Thursday, TM Family!

Welcome to the Token Metrics Research | Daily newsletter, where we cover key market movements, regulatory updates, and early alpha for our readers and investors. 

Let's dive in! 

Today's edition of Token Metrics Research | Daily Newsletter is brought to you by Pacaso.

When the founder who sold his last company to Zillow for $120M starts a new venture, people notice. That’s why the same VCs who backed Uber, Venmo, and eBay also invested in Pacaso.

Disrupting the real estate industry once again, Pacaso’s streamlined platform offers co-ownership of premier properties, revamping the $1.3T vacation home market.

And it works. By handing keys to 2,000+ happy homeowners, Pacaso has already made $110M+ in gross profits in their operating history.

Now, after 41% YoY gross profit growth last year alone, they recently reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.

Invest for $2.90/Share

_{Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.}

Now let's get back to the top stories of the day.

Bitcoin has etched a fresh milestone, peaking at $124,128 before retracing slightly to around $121,678, a 1.38% daily gain that underscores sustained upward pressure.

This breakthrough follows cooler-than-expected U.S. CPI data (2.7% YoY headline, 3.1% core), boosting the odds of a September Fed rate cut to 93.7%, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Institutional inflows remain robust, with BTC ETFs absorbing over $3.6B in the past month, while corporate and sovereign treasuries now hold 3.64M BTC (17% of supply). Ethereum isn't far behind, trading up 2.08% at $4,754, inching toward its 2021 ATH.

Adding fuel to the fire, Bitcoin's realized price, currently $51,888, has exceeded its 200-week moving average (200WMA) at $51,344 for the first time since June 2022.

For context, realized price aggregates the value of all BTC at their last on-chain movement price, divided by circulating supply, offering a gauge of aggregate cost basis.

Historically, this crossover has heralded major rallies (e.g., 2017 and 2021 cycles), as it reflects shifting investor confidence and a structural pivot from bearish accumulation to bullish expansion. The 200WMA has long been a macro support floor, breached only in extreme downturns like the 2022 FTX collapse.

This isn't just hype; it's a confluence of macro tailwinds and on-chain fundamentals (scarce supply vs. structural demand). Long-term holders are viewing BTC as a core asset, with consolidation in the $120K—$125K range before year-end upside.

For portfolios, consider layering in exposure via spot holdings or ETF wrappers, but monitor for volatility spikes. If history rhymes, we could see "more room to run" as realized price divergences widen, potentially targeting $150K+ by Q4.

Circle has launched Arc, an open-source Layer-1 blockchain tailored for stablecoin finance, positioning it as enterprise-grade infrastructure for payments, FX, and capital markets.

Key specs include USDC as native gas for predictable, dollar-denominated fees; a built-in FX engine for 24/7 PvP settlements; deterministic sub-second finality via the Malachite consensus engine (acquired from Informal Systems); opt-in privacy for compliance; and seamless integration with Circle's suite (USDC, EURC, Mint, Wallets, CCTP).

EVM-compatible and interoperable, Arc supports apps like stablecoin swaps, tokenized assets, and agentic commerce. Private testnet soon, public testnet this fall, mainnet beta in 2026. The core software drops under a permissive license to spur community builds.

In a parallel move, payments giant Stripe is stealthily developing Tempo, a high-performance L1 focused on payments, in partnership with Paradigm. Run by a five-person team, Tempo is EVM-compatible and builds on Stripe's recent acquisitions (stablecoin firm Bridge for $1.1B, wallet developer Privy). No native token mentioned, but it aligns with Stripe's stablecoin tech stack amid the GENIUS Act's stablecoin push.

Critics argue these "centralized enterprise chains" lack Ethereum's decentralization, urging pivots to L2s for security and network effects. Others see a balkanization of stablecoin rails, Tether's Plasma/Stable, Circle's Arc, Stripe's Tempo, potentially fragmenting liquidity while challenging ETH's payment dominance. Polkadot's Gavin Wood flagged this "bankification" trend, teasing a decentralized stablecoin using DOT as collateral.

Stablecoins are evolving from tokens to full ecosystems, with Arc/Tempo eyeing trillions in global settlements. For crypto-natives, this validates USDC's utility but raises interoperability risks; bridge exploits could spike. Bullish on stablecoin TVL growth, but ETH L2s might lose share unless they capture cross-chain flows.

Grayscale has expanded its Sui ecosystem offerings with two new single-asset trusts: Grayscale DeepBook Trust ($DEEP) and Grayscale Walrus Trust ($WAL). These trusts target accredited investors for direct exposure to these core Sui protocols.

DeepBook is Sui's institutional-grade liquidity layer, a native CLOB (central limit order book) with parallelized execution. It enables TradFi-level performance in DeFi (e.g., sub-second swaps, flexible hooks for apps). Walrus redefines decentralized data management with programmable, chain-agnostic storage for dApps like social networks or games, emphasizing privacy and scalability.

These trusts follow Grayscale's initial Sui product launch nearly a year ago, highlighting Sui's TVL surge (peaking at $2.3B, now $2.2B) and ecosystem momentum. X buzz frames this as "great validation" for Sui, with $DEEP at $437M market cap (#204) and $WAL at $639M (#158).

This is institutional rubber-stamping for Sui's DeFi and infra stack, expect inflows to boost $SUI liquidity and TVL. For portfolios, $DEEP/WAL trusts offer pure-play exposure without on-chain risks, ideal for hedging broader L1 bets. Watch for composability plays; Sui's parallel execution could outpace Solana in high-throughput niches.

Crypto exchange Bullish (ticker: BLSH) made a splashy NYSE debut, opening at $102, more than double its $37 IPO price, before closing at $68. The IPO raised $1.1B (expanded to 20.3M shares due to demand), valuing Bullish at a $5.4B market cap.

Backed by Peter Thiel, Block. one, Galaxy, and Nomura, Bullish boasts $1.7B BTC holdings, $144M stablecoins, $55M ETH/other assets, and owns CoinDesk. Trading volume since 2021: $1.25T across spot/derivs.

ARK Invest capitalized, buying 2.53M shares ($172M) across ARKK (1.7M), ARKW (545K), and ARKF (273K). This echoes institutional interest, amid BTC's rally and pro-crypto regulatory shifts under Trump.

Bullish's pop reflects institutional hunger for CeFi exposure, mirroring Circle's IPO success. For crypto-natives, it's a liquidity signal; strong debuts often precede sector rotations. ARK's bet validates hybrid models (exchange + media), but volatility looms if BTC corrects. Consider indirect plays via BTC/ETH holdings; closing at $68 positions BLSH as a momentum trade, with potential for $100+ retests if macro holds.

Most people think you need thousands to profit from crypto.

But this free book exposes how even small investments could transform into life-changing wealth using 3 specific strategies.

As markets recover, this may be your last chance to get positioned before prices potentially soar to unprecedented levels.

Claim Your Free Report Now