Bitcoin Soars, Metaplanet Rises, Hong Kong Innovates

Happy Thursday, TM Family!

Welcome to the Token Metrics Research | Daily newsletter, where we cover key market movements, regulatory updates, and early alpha for our readers and investors. 

Let's dive in! 

Bitcoin has surged past $107,000, reaching $107,397 as of June 26, 2025, marking a significant milestone in its price trajectory. This rally is driven by multiple factors reinforcing Bitcoin's bullish outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined to 97.1150, down 0.58% in a single session and 2.42% over the past month, with a 12-month drop of 8.29%. A weakening dollar enhances Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation, as investors seek assets that preserve value amid economic uncertainty.

The supply dynamics further bolster this trend. Over 14.37M BTC, or more than 72% of the circulating supply of 19.8M BTC, is classified as illiquid, held by long-term investors or in cold storage. This scarcity, driven by strong "HODL" sentiment, reduces the available Bitcoin for trading, potentially pushing prices higher as demand persists. Analyst James Van Straten notes that this growing illiquid supply signals increasing investor confidence and could lead to a supply-side shock, supporting Bitcoin's store-of-value narrative.

Institutional adoption is another key driver. Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a 12-day net inflow streak, totaling $3.9B, with BlackRock's IBIT leading with $3.3B, including $340.3M on June 25 alone. Other funds, such as Fidelity's FBTC ($115.2M) and Ark Invest's ARKB ($70.2M), also saw significant inflows on the same day. Since January 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed $48.4B in cumulative net inflows, managing $125B in assets. This sustained institutional interest underscores confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential.

Metaplanet, a Japanese investment firm, has solidified its position as the fifth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally, with 12,345 BTC, surpassing Tesla's 11,509 BTC. Their aggressive accumulation strategy, which began with a goal to hold 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and 21,000 BTC by 2026, has propelled them ahead of major players. Their latest purchase of 1,234 BTC for $133M at an average price of $107,877 underscores their commitment.

Metaplanet's journey began with a pivot to Bitcoin as a treasury asset, adopting innovative financing methods like Japan's largest moving-strike warrant program, which allows equity issuance without fixed discounts. In Q1 2025, they added 5,034 BTC, reaching 6,976 BTC, and continued with purchases like 1,112 BTC in June, hitting the 10,000 BTC milestone. Their BTC Yield metric, measuring Bitcoin growth per diluted share, ensures shareholder value, mirroring strategies pioneered by MicroStrategy but tailored to Asia-Pacific markets.

Hong Kong is positioning itself as a hub for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization through a new policy led by the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau (FSTB) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). The policy focuses on standardizing the issuance of tokenized government bonds, incentivizing RWA tokenization to enhance liquidity and accessibility, clarifying tax rules for tokenized ETFs, and supporting secondary market trading on crypto exchanges. Sectors like precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy are targeted for tokenization.

This initiative aims to bridge traditional finance and blockchain, potentially attracting institutional players by making assets more liquid and accessible. The RWA market is growing, projected at a $260B valuation by 2025, and HKMA's regulatory sandbox can be a key enabler. The policy, effective from August 1, 2025, could set a precedent for global RWA tokenization frameworks.

That's all for today, people. Let's talk tomorrow.

Your Friends at Token Metrics