Coinbase Soars, Hackers Strike, and Bhutan's Bitcoin Boom

Happy Friday, TM Family!

Welcome to the Token Metrics Research | Daily newsletter, where we cover key market movements, regulatory updates, and early alpha for our readers and investors. 

Let's dive in! 

On July 21, 2025, Coinbase Derivatives, LLC, will introduce perpetual-style futures in the US, a first for a CFTC-regulated exchange. These futures, including nano Bitcoin (0.01 BTC) and nano Ether (0.10 ETH) contracts, feature no quarterly expirations, spot price tracking, embedded leverage up to 20x, and 24/7 trading availability. Unlike traditional futures, these contracts have five-year expirations and hourly funding rates to align with spot prices, addressing a gap that previously pushed US traders to offshore platforms.

A key advantage is the tax treatment under the 60/40 rule, where 60% of gains are taxed as long-term capital gains (0-20% based on income) and 40% as short-term (10-37%). For example, a $1,000 profit in a 35% tax bracket incurs $260 in taxes under this rule, compared to $350 for short-term equity gains. This could make perpetual futures a cost-effective option for traders. 

Coinbase's stock (COIN) has seen remarkable growth. It closed at $375.07 on June 26, 2025, a new all-time high, surpassing the previous closing high of $357.39 from November 9, 2021. That day, the stock surged 5.54%, with an intraday high of $379.75, driven by optimism around stablecoin adoption and favorable US regulations. Analysts like Bernstein have raised price targets to $510, citing Coinbase's role as a crypto "universal bank".

In May 2025, Coinbase became the first crypto-native company to join the S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial Services. Effective May 19, this inclusion triggered significant buying from index funds, boosting the stock by 24% in a single day. Representing about 0.11% of the index, Coinbase's entry signals mainstream acceptance of crypto but introduces new volatility risks.

The first half of 2025 saw an unprecedented $2.1B in cryptocurrency stolen across 75 incidents, a 10% increase over the previous half-year high in 2022 and matching all of 2024's losses. The most significant incident was a February hack at a Dubai-based company, Bybit, where $1.5B was stolen, representing 70% of the total. The average hack size doubled to nearly $30M from $15M in H1 2024, with at least $100M stolen monthly from January to June.

Over 90% of thefts resulted from seed-phrase leaks (80%) and smart-contract exploits (12%). Seed-phrase leaks often involved social engineering, insider collaboration, or front-end protocol weaknesses, while exploits included flash loans and re-entrancy attacks. North Korea-linked groups, such as the Lazarus Group, were responsible for $1.6B, leveraging sophisticated access control attacks targeting cloud services and DNS.

In May 2025, Coinbase disclosed a data breach affecting less than 1% of its 9.7 million monthly users. Hackers, who bribed overseas customer support agents, stole names, addresses, emails, and partial financial data, but not login credentials or private keys. The attackers demanded a $20M ransom, which Coinbase refused, instead offering a $20M reward for information leading to their arrest. While no funds were directly stolen, the breach increases the risk of social engineering scams.

Bitcoin miner revenue fell to a two-month low of $34M on June 22, 2025, driven by lower transaction fees and Bitcoin prices near local lows. The network's hashrate dropped 3.5% since June 16, indicating some miners may have powered down unprofitable rigs.

Despite the revenue drop, miners are not selling their Bitcoin. Wallet outflows decreased from 23,000 BTC daily in February to 6,000 BTC, and miner reserves grew by 4,000 BTC since March, reaching the highest level since November 2024. This suggests miners are optimistic about future price increases.

On June 29, 2025, the Bitcoin network is expected to adjust difficulty, reducing from 126.41 T to 115.80 T due to slower block production (10.92 minutes vs. the 10-minute target). This could lower mining costs, potentially boosting profitability.

Since 2020, Bhutan has mined 12,062 BTC, valued at $1.3B, using its abundant hydropower resources. Managed by Druk Holding and Investments (DHI), these holdings represent nearly 40% of Bhutan's GDP. Bhutan ranks third globally in government Bitcoin reserves, behind only the US and China.

Bitcoin mining profits fund free healthcare, environmental projects, and public salaries, aligning with Bhutan's Gross National Happiness philosophy. The country also holds over $1M in Ethereum, diversifying its crypto portfolio.

That's all for today, people. Happy weekend.

Your Friends at Token Metrics