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Welcome to the Token Metrics Research | Daily newsletter, where we cover key market movements, regulatory updates, and early alpha for our readers and investors.
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In Today's Edition
ETH Dips Below $4K on Shutdown Risks
Naver's Upbit Acquisition Shakes Korean Crypto
Stablecoins Scale Up: Tether's Valuation Leap and EU Consortium
Ethereum Ecosystem Thrives: ETFs, Gate L2, Base Surge
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Now let's get back to the top stories of the day.
1. ETH Dips Below $4K on Shutdown Risks
Ethereum's price tumbled below the psychological $4,000 mark for the first time since early August, trading as low as $3,983 during Asian hours before recovering slightly to around $4,037, a 2.91% drop over 24 hours.
This decline dragged Bitcoin below $112,000 (down over 1%) and XRP lower by 2.6%, amid cascading liquidations totaling $1.7B across altcoins, with ETH alone accounting for $212.9M.
The trigger? Mounting U.S. government shutdown risks, with Polymarket odds hitting 77% for a shutdown by year-end and 63% by October 1, as Congress scrambles for a funding bill.
A notable casualty: An ETH whale liquidated 9,152 ETH ($36.4M position), booking over $45M in losses on Hyperliquid.
Recent spot ETH ETF outflows of $79.4M on September 24 add to the pressure, contrasting earlier September inflows of $110M.
From an investment lens, this dip signals accumulation opportunities. On-chain data shows over 420,000 ETH withdrawn from exchanges this week, hitting nine-year lows in exchange balances, hinting at long-term holding amid institutional confidence.
Whales are split: some selling, others scooping up millions despite a 20% drop since mid-September. With Fed rate cuts in play but no rush signaled, watch Friday's PCE inflation data for potential liquidity boosts. Short-term volatility looms, but ETH's fundamentals suggest a rebound toward new highs. Consider dollar-cost averaging if you're bullish on Layer-2 scaling.
South Korean internet powerhouse Naver is in advanced talks to acquire Dunamu, the parent of Upbit, Korea's largest crypto exchange, via a stock swap. This would make Dunamu a full subsidiary of Naver Financial.
Naver's shares surged over 7% to 246,000 KRW ($175) on the news, with reports suggesting a push toward a "super-app" integrating crypto and stablecoins.
This aligns with Seoul's drive for won-pegged stablecoins to bolster monetary sovereignty, including a new Democratic Party task force aiming for legislation by year-end.
For investors, this M&A highlights Asia's maturing crypto landscape. Upbit's dominance could supercharge Naver's fintech arm, potentially sparking innovation in stablecoin projects and cross-border payments.
While details are pending (no official confirmation yet), this could pressure competitors like Kakao and boost Korean token adoption. Monitor regulatory nods; positive outcomes might rally regional exchange tokens, but global holders should diversify amid geopolitical risks.
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Now, let's continue with the top stories of the day.
3. Stablecoins Scale Up: Tether's Valuation Leap and EU Consortium
Tether Holdings is negotiating a $20B private placement for a 3% equity stake. It targets a staggering $500B valuation, eclipsing Coinbase's $50B market cap and positioning it among the top private firms like OpenAI.
With 2024 net income projected over $13B and USDT underpinning global crypto liquidity, Tether's also launching USAT, a U.S.-based stablecoin.
In Europe, nine banks, including ING, UniCredit, and Danske, formed a Dutch consortium for a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin. The consortium is eyeing an H2 2026 launch to rival U.S. dollar dominance with 24/7 low-cost transactions and programmable payments.
This dual thrust underscores stablecoins' pivot from crypto trading tools to global financial infrastructure. Tether's raise could fuel expansion into Treasurys (it's already the seventh-largest buyer), while the EU initiative enhances payment autonomy.
Stablecoins offer low-volatility yields, but regulatory scrutiny (e.g., GENIUS Act) looms. Favor diversified exposure via baskets or yield-farming, EU adoption could propel euro-pegged assets, potentially eroding USDT's 70%+ market share.
4. Ethereum Ecosystem Thrives: ETFs, Gate L2, Base Surge
Spot Ethereum ETFs now capture 15% of total ETH spot volume, up from 3% at the November 2024 launch. This reflects regulated inflows and a 30% YTD price rise to ~$4,500 (pre-dip).
Meanwhile, Gate exchange unveiled Gate Layer, an OP Stack-based L2 with Ethereum compatibility, overhauling GT tokenomics: GT becomes the sole gas token, with 180 million (60% supply) burned.
Coinbase's Base hit all-time highs with 90 million weekly transactions and $6.9B TVL, fueled by airdrop speculation after teasing a native token, though active addresses dip, signaling concentrated user activity.
These developments affirm Ethereum's L2 dominance amid scaling wars. ETFs democratize access, potentially sparking a supply shock via staking approvals; Gate's move mirrors Coinbase's Base strategy, deepening liquidity. Base's buzz, driven by AI agents and creator coins, hints at massive airdrops rewarding builders.
Bullish on ETH L2s, review GT for potential utility upside or farm Base protocols for an airdrop. Watch for token launches; decentralization trade-offs exist, but growth potential outweighs risks in this cycle.
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