Crypto Markets in Turmoil: Downturns, Deals, and DeFi Drives

Happy Friday, TM Family!

Welcome to the Token Metrics Research | Daily newsletter, where we cover key market movements, regulatory updates, and early alpha for our readers and investors. 

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Now let's get back to the top stories of the day.

As we navigate this volatile phase in the crypto markets, it's clear that macroeconomic headwinds are testing the resilience of digital assets.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a staggering $536.4M in net outflows on Thursday, the largest single-day withdrawal since August, led by ARKB ($275M) and FBTC ($132M), with Ethereum ETFs adding another $56.9M in outflows.

This comes as Bitcoin dipped below $106,000, trading around $105,000 after a 6% drop, giving back early-week gains and breaching its 200-day SMA.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 22, signaling "extreme fear," mirroring U.S. stock market sentiment amid regional bank woes and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions under President Trump's tariff policies.

Liquidations hit $1.2B in the past 24 hours, with 79% longs wiped out, $344M in BTC, $201M in ETH, and $97M in SOL, affecting over 307,000 accounts and exacerbating sell-offs through cascading loops.

Broader altcoins, such as XRP, DOGE, and LINK, fell 8-12%, pushing the CoinDesk 20 Index down 9%. Technically, BTC is eyeing sub-$100K support at $99,500, with its gold ratio at the most oversold level (RSI 22.20) in three years, amid gold's surge to a $30T market cap, dwarfing BTC's $2.17T and highlighting a flight to traditional safe havens.

Meanwhile, the PIPE model for Bitcoin treasuries is faltering, with firms like KindlyMD (NAKA) and Strive (ASST) experiencing 90-95% stock drops despite aggressive BTC accumulation, raising questions about the viability of such strategies in this fragile environment.

For investors, this liquidity crunch underscores the need for defensive positioning, including reducing leverage, monitoring the $100K BTC support level, and watching for signals of a Fed rate cut or catalysts for ETF approval to spark a Q4 rebound.

Ripple continues to aggressively expand its enterprise footprint, a move that could solidify XRP's role in institutional payments amid market fragility.

In a $1B deal, Ripple acquired GTreasury, a Chicago-based treasury management software provider, to integrate blockchain settlement with traditional tools for real-time liquidity and risk management across digital and fiat assets. This marks Ripple's third major M&A in 2025, following Hidden Road and Rail, positioning it to tap the multi-trillion-dollar corporate treasury market and compete with incumbents like Kyriba.

Concurrently, Ripple is leading a $1B+ fundraise via a SPAC to create a dedicated XRP digital asset treasury (DAT), contributing its own holdings to accumulate more XRP and stabilize supply dynamics, echoing strategies from Strategy Inc. and Metaplanet.

With Ripple holding 4.7B XRP ($11B value) plus 35.9B in escrows, this could enhance predictability for XRP in tokenized deposits and stablecoins. However, the timing, amid $19B in recent liquidations, adds risk.

XRP dipped 3.33% to $2.35, but this dual push signals Ripple's bet on bridging crypto with corporate finance. Watch for integration synergies to drive adoption, potentially buoying XRP in a recovering market.

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Now, let's continue with the top stories of the day.

DeFi's push toward interoperability and innovation remains a bright spot, even as broader markets cool.

Uniswap has integrated Solana support into its web app, allowing seamless SOL wallet connections and swaps alongside Ethereum and 13 other chains, tackling fragmentation by unifying access without bridges or app switches. This leverages Solana's $10.9B TVL for faster, cheaper trades, benefiting users and boosting liquidity across ecosystems.

Complementing this, Euler is teasing a USD synthetic dollar launch in weeks, integrated with its lending and on-protocol DEX to retain value within the system and enhance token holder economics without external incentives.

On the perps front, HIP-3 on Hyperliquid enables permissionless equity perpetual futures, with early success in XYZ100 (top 100 companies index) generating $65M+ in initial volumes, and projects like Ventuals adding pre-IPO synthetics via hybrid oracles.

Meanwhile, a16z crypto invested $50M in Jito, the Solana staking protocol, to scale its Block Assembly Marketplace and validator tech, underscoring institutional backing for Solana's MEV and infrastructure.

These developments signal the maturation of DeFi stacks, which monitor TVL shifts and yield opportunities. As cross-chain unification could accelerate adoption once macroeconomic sentiment stabilizes, this trend is expected to continue.

Institutional interest in crypto infrastructure persists, offering a counterbalance to spot market weakness.

Japan's top banks, MUFG, SMBC, and Mizuho, are collaborating on yen- and USD-pegged stablecoins to accelerate corporate payments, piloting the initiative with Mitsubishi Corp. and leveraging over 300,000 enterprise connections for programmable, instant settlements. This aligns with Japan's regulatory push, including upcoming DCJPY and RLUSD launches.

In mining, Bitfarms upsized its convertible notes offering to $500M (from $300M) at 1.375% due 2031, for general corporate use and dilution hedging, amid an 82% monthly stock gain despite recent dips.

Daylight Energy raised $75M ($15M equity led by Framework Ventures, $60M debt) to expand its DePIN solar network, offering subscription-based home systems with "Sun Points" rewards evolving to tokens and DayFi yields tied to energy revenues.

Social protocol Farcaster hit 100K funded wallets, fueled by its mini-app ecosystem for crypto builders, with 400K+ iOS downloads and cross-chain support driving user growth.

Finally, CME Group's Q3 crypto derivatives volume soared to $900B, with ETH futures up 355% YoY (OI at $8.7B) and new SOL/XRP options, signaling deepening institutional hedging amid record 1,014 large holders.

These steps highlight resilient institutional flows, position for altcoin diversification and regulated products as catalysts for Q4 recovery.

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That's all for today. Let's talk tomorrow.