DeFi Deals, ETF Bets, and Market Movers

Happy Thursday, TM Family!

Welcome to the Token Metrics Research | Daily newsletter, where we cover key market movements, regulatory updates, and early alpha for our readers and investors. 

Let's dive in! 

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Now let's get back to the top stories of the day.

The M&A landscape in crypto is heating up, with several high-profile deals underscoring a push toward integrated, compliant platforms that bridge traditional finance and onchain ecosystems.

Coinbase kicked things off by acquiring Echo, Cobie's onchain capital formation platform, for approximately $375M, bolstering its toolkit for blockchain-native fundraising via Echo's Sonar product, which has already facilitated over $200M across 300 deals.

This includes a quirky $25M side purchase to revive Cobie's UpOnly podcast and NFT, signaling Coinbase's bet on community-driven tools amid its string of 2025 acquisitions, such as Deribit and Opyn.

Hot on its heels, institutional prime broker FalconX snapped up 21Shares, the Swiss ETP giant managing $11B across 55 products, in one of the sector's largest deals this year, terms undisclosed, but it expands FalconX's footprint in regulated crypto exposure across the U.S., Europe, and APAC.

Meanwhile, payments platform Modern Treasury acquired stablecoin startup Beam for $40M in an all-stock play, integrating Beam's real-time settlement tech to enable seamless fiat-stablecoin transfers and compete in enterprise blockchain payments.

These moves highlight a maturing industry where consolidation is key to scaling compliant infrastructure. Expect accelerated innovation in fundraising, trading, and payments, but be aware of potential antitrust scrutiny as giants like Coinbase and FalconX gain dominance.

For investors, this could boost valuations in adjacent DeFi and TradFi-crypto bridge plays, although integration risks persist in volatile markets.

Fundraising activity remains robust, with ambitious capital injections aimed at driving ecosystem growth and strengthening the treasury. Hyperliquid Strategies, fresh from its merger origins, filed an S-1 to raise to $1B via 160 million shares, earmarked for stacking more HYPE tokens in its treasury (currently holding 12.6 million HYPE and $305M cash) to stake and generate rewards, potentially supercharging liquidity in the Hyperliquid DeFi perp exchange, which has notched $3T in volume since 2023.

Prediction market darling Kalshi is drawing investor bids valuing it north of $10B, just weeks after a $300M round at $5B, fueled by a court win enabling election contracts and $50B annualized volume, plus NHL partnerships rivaling Polymarket.

Galaxy Digital crushed Q3 with a record $505M net income (up from prior quarters), driven by $295M in trading profits, $2B in asset management inflows, and expansions like the Helios data center for AI leasing, total assets now at $11.5B.

Tying into this, Bitcoin miners are pivoting hard to AI compute amid post-halving pressures, with Bitfarms raising $500M in convertibles for HPC expansion and CoreWeave's $9B bid for Core Scientific facing shareholder pushback.

These developments indicate a sector flush with capital, where treasury strategies and diversified revenues (e.g., AI infrastructure) could help stabilize earnings. We see upside in HYPE-linked plays and miner stocks, but caution against overvaluation risks if macroeconomic tailwinds falter, positioning for staking yields and long-term infrastructure bets.

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Now, let's continue with the top stories of the day.

After prolonged disruptions, key platforms are staging comebacks, while others gear up for launches, reflecting the ecosystem's resilience. India's WazirX is set to restart trading tomorrow (October 24), ending a 16-month hiatus following a $230M hack linked to the Lazarus Group.

This restart is backed by a court-approved restructuring with 95.7% creditor support, zero-fee trading, and phased token rollouts. This could help rebuild trust in Indian exchanges, although the scars from taxes and hacks run deep among retail investors.

Solana DEX Meteora kicks off its MET TGE today with airdrops (no pre-fundraise), allocating 48% of the circulating supply at launch via point programs and Mercurial migrations, bootstrapping liquidity at a starting price of $0.5, with projected valuations of $450M-$1.1B based on 6x-10x P/S multiples versus competitors like Raydium.

Aave wrapped up a resilient Q3 with record revenue from steady deposits and normalized rates (3-5% APYs), liquidating $200M seamlessly amid volatility. Founder Stani Kulechov anticipates Q4 macroeconomic boosts from rate cuts, with the V4 launch streamlining processes for institutions.

These updates showcase DeFi's adaptability, WazirX's revival tests recovery models, Meteora's airdrop favors community over VCs, and Aave's focus on safety positions it for yield arbitrage.

Investors should monitor MET liquidity post-TGE for entry points and Aave utilization for borrowing demand spikes, but be prepared for Solana memecoin volatility to drag down DEX revenues.

Institutions are doubling down on core assets while regulators bare teeth, all against a backdrop of steady markets. BlackRock plans to stick with BTC and ETH ETFs (IBIT at $90B AUM, ETHA at $16B), shunning new filings amid an expected "explosion" of U.S. crypto ETPs, enabled by SEC standards and wirehouse access, such as Morgan Stanley's eased restrictions. This conservative stance contrasts with crypto-native companies like 21Shares, which are preparing a diverse range of products.

Canada's Fintrac hit Cryptomus with a record $126M fine for AML lapses, including unreported suspicious trades tied to child exploitation and ransomware, underscoring enforcement risks for non-compliant platforms.

Markets-wise, BTC (~$108K) and ETH (~$3.8K) are range-bound, awaiting Friday's CPI (a soft 0.2% increase could spark rallies) and the U.S.-China thaw (77% Polymarket odds for a tariff deal), with Tesla's unchanged BTC holdings yielding $80M in unrealized gains.

BlackRock's focus validates BTC/ETH as gateways, but the ETP wave could fragment liquidity, favor majors for now. The Cryptomus fine warns of global AML crackdowns, potentially weeding out weak players, while steady Asia flows ($19.4B YTD stablecoins) suggest resilience. Trade cautiously ahead of the CPI, eyeing dips below $100,000 BTC as a buying opportunity if yields ease.

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That's all for today. Let's talk tomorrow.