Funding Fuels Growth Amid Macro Volatility

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Welcome to the Token Metrics Research | Daily newsletter, where we cover key market movements, regulatory updates, and early alpha for our readers and investors. 

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Now let's get back to the top stories of the day.

The prediction markets sector is experiencing unprecedented growth, driven by massive institutional backing and surging activity.

Polymarket, the leading crypto-native platform, has disclosed $205M in previously unannounced funding rounds, including $55M in 2024 at a $350M valuation and $150M in 2025 at a $1.2B valuation, bringing its total prior capital to $279M.

This revelation comes ahead of a landmark $2B equity investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the NYSE parent, valuing Polymarket at $8-9B and positioning ICE as a distributor of its event-driven data.

The deal underscores traditional finance's growing embrace of decentralized betting on real-world outcomes, such as elections and policies.

Activity has shattered records, with Polymarket logging $1.43B in September 2025 volume and rival Kalshi exceeding $3B, marking the sector's highest weekly volumes since the 2024 election. Cumulative transactions hit all-time highs for three straight weeks, fueled by low-value bets and intensifying competition.

This "golden age" signals that prediction markets are evolving from niche speculation to an essential information infrastructure, potentially rivaling traditional polling with blockchain transparency. Investors should monitor for convergence with oracles and AI, which could amplify use cases in DeFi and beyond. However, regulatory scrutiny, evident in Kalshi's controversies, remains a risk factor.

Changpeng Zhao's YZI Labs, the rebranded venture arm formerly known as Binance Labs, unveiled a $1B Builder Fund to accelerate development on the BNB Chain ecosystem.

Targeting projects in DeFi, AI, real-world assets (RWAs), DeSci, payments, and wallets, the fund pairs capital with tools, integrations, and access to a 460 million-user base.

Selected teams can secure up to $500,000, plus mentorship through expanded accelerator hubs in key cities like New York and Dubai.

This move aligns with BNB's recent surge above $1,320, up 30% weekly, which has pushed it to the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap amid tightening supply and heightened chain activity.

YZI's focus on human-centric innovations, such as AI-enhanced potential and biotech integration, positions BNB Chain as a contender against Ethereum-layer competitors.

With Zhao's active involvement post-rebranding, this fund could catalyze a wave of adoption, but success hinges on navigating post-FTX regulatory landscapes.

For portfolio strategies, exposure to BNB-linked projects could be beneficial as the ecosystem's TVL climbs to $11B, its highest level since 2022.

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Now, let's continue with the deep dive/hidden gems, TM Daily.

Global economic shifts are creating headwinds for Bitcoin while highlighting opportunities elsewhere. Gold shattered $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by ETF inflows and geopolitical tensions, yet Bitcoin dipped 2.4% to $121,340 as the dollar index (DXY) hit a two-month high of 98.90.

This divergence, where gold serves as a safe haven versus BTC's risk-asset correlation, stems from a strengthening USD, which is pressuring dollar-denominated commodities. Compounding this, Japanese 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.70% (a 17-year high), depreciating the yen 3.5% and spilling volatility into global markets, further capping BTC's upside after its recent $126,000 peak.

On a brighter note, Ethereum stands poised to outperform amid expected Fed rate cuts, with a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction in late October. Its yield-generating nature and correlation with small-cap stocks make it attractive in a low-rate environment, potentially targeting $5,200 resistance.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin miner IREN's shares jumped 9% after securing $225M in AI cloud contracts for 11,000 NVIDIA GPUs, signaling diversification into high-performance computing amid mining profitability squeezes.

From our vantage, these dynamics underscore crypto's sensitivity to macro easing cycles, watch for BTC support at $118,000, while ETH could lead rotations into growth assets.

A broader market cap of $4.22T reflects resilience, but concerns about debt in the US, Japan, and Europe may fuel safe-haven flows into gold and BTC in the long term.

Innovation in crypto products is accelerating, blending traditional and digital assets amid varying regulatory stances. Hyperliquid launched pre-launch perpetuals (hyperps) for Monad's MON token, trading at $0.15 and implying a $15B FDV, with $19.3M in initial volume, highlighting speculative interest in EVM-compatible Layer 1s.

S&P Global unveiled the Digital Markets 50 Index, merging 15 cryptos (e.g., BTC, ETH, SOL) with 35 equities in digital infrastructure, set for launch with Dinari's tracking token by year-end.

This hybrid benchmark, alongside CoinShares' altcoin ETF and expansions like Grayscale's Crypto 5 ETF, caters to diversification demands in a maturing market.

In contrast, India reiterated its wariness of "unbacked" cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, promoting an RBI-backed digital currency and deposit tokenization pilot to enable faster and more transparent transactions via blockchain.

While not banning crypto, the emphasis on sovereign alternatives could limit private asset growth in the region. These developments signal institutionalization through ETPs and indices, potentially unlocking trillions in capital, but regulatory divergences, like India's CBDC push, may fragment global adoption.

Delays in US Solana ETF approvals due to shutdowns add short-term uncertainty, yet the $3.24B in BTC ETF inflows underscore sustained demand.

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That's all for today. Let's talk tomorrow.