Market Summary
Welcome back to Token Metrics Daily.
Publication date: Jan 5, 2026
As of Jan 5, 2026, crypto markets are grinding higher for a fifth straight session, with Bitcoin trading around $92–93K and Ethereum near $3,150 amid renewed spot ETF inflows and a supportive but cautious macro backdrop. U.S. and global crypto ETPs logged roughly $47.2B of inflows in 2025 and have started 2026 with another strong wave of demand, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and other large issuers, while whales have become markedly more active on Binance. On chain indicators and analyst commentary, however, suggest that the rally is heavily flow- and derivatives driven rather than powered by broad based retail or DeFi growth, implying both upside continuation potential and elevated reversal risk if ETF flows or macro conditions shift.
1. DePIN Airdrops Heat Up: Depinsim (ESIM) & Binance’s BREV
DePIN is wasting no time in 2026. Depinsim’s ESIM token launched trading today across KuCoin, Bitget, XT and Binance Alpha with overlapping HODLer airdrops and trading campaigns, making it one of the most aggressive DePIN token go‑to‑markets of early 2026.
The playbook is clear: reward early believers, leverage CEX distribution, and bootstrap a tokenholder base before TVL and real world usage scale.
What Depinsim (ESIM) is trying to do
Depinsim aims to sit at the intersection of DePIN and telecom infrastructure, using token incentives to coordinate bandwidth and connectivity provisioning. Think of it as trying to tokenize telecom style capacity and turn it into a programmable asset class that can plug into DeFi.
Today’s coordinated listing and reward push does a few things:
- Visibility: Multi CEX listings get ESIM in front of a wide base of traders from day one.
- Distribution: HODLer airdrops spread tokens to users who are already engaged with CEX earn products and campaigns.
- Liquidity depth: Parallel campaigns can help tighten spreads and reduce slippage if market makers and users show up.
Binance HODLer Airdrops adds Brevis (BREV)
In parallel, Binance’s HODLer Airdrops program added Brevis (BREV) as its 60th project, ahead of a Jan 6 listing. BNB Simple Earn users can now gain early exposure to a zk verifiable computation platform that’s already well funded and positioned as core infrastructure for on chain proving.
Brevis sits in a key part of the stack:
- It enables off chain or cross chain data to be proven on chain via zk proofs.
- It’s highly relevant for AI x crypto, DePIN metering, and complex DeFi logic that needs verifiable off chain inputs.
- If adoption grows, protocols may integrate Brevis at the smart contract layer, making it a potential “picks and-shovels” play.
Why this matters for investors
- DePIN narrative acceleration: Projects like Depinsim show that infra heavy, real world networks will keep using aggressive token go to-market tactics to capture attention in a crowded market.
- Infrastructure premium: Brevis underscores that zk infra is still a prized sector; early listings plus CEX distribution can turbocharge awareness ahead of broader TGE pipelines.
- Yield and exposure: For BNB and CEX earn users, HODLer airdrops are becoming a consistent way to farm early alt exposure without rotating capital into higher risk DEX pools.
As always, the key is separating tokenomics that drive sustainable, protocol level demand from short lived listing pumps. Watch how ESIM and BREV usage data, integrations, and on chain volume evolve once the initial campaign hype fades.
2. Japan Eyes Crypto on the Stock Exchange
Japan’s finance minister Satsuki Katayama is signaling a potentially powerful new regulatory tailwind. She’s pushing to integrate crypto more directly into traditional stock exchanges and to lower tax rates on major coins such as BTC and ETH.
This is a notable evolution in one of Asia’s most important capital markets. Japan was early to regulate exchanges after Mt. Gox, but that conservative stance also pushed some innovation offshore. The new tone is more pragmatic: keep investor protections, but make Japan competitive again for crypto capital formation.
What’s on the table
- Exchange integration: Exploring ways for investors to access crypto exposure directly through platforms like the Tokyo Stock Exchange, potentially via listed products that trade alongside equities.
- Tax reform: Lowering punitive treatment on year end unrealized gains and aligning taxation on major tokens with other financial assets.
- Capital markets alignment: Making it easier for domestic institutions and corporates to hold or gain exposure to crypto without complex workarounds.
Why this matters for investors
- Asia’s regulatory race: Hong Kong has leaned into spot ETFs and tokenization; Singapore has focused on institutional grade infrastructure. A more crypto friendly Japan adds another major liquidity hub to the mix.
- Onshore demand unlock: Easier access through stock exchanges could onboard a large base of retail and conservative institutions who would never wire funds to a crypto native CEX.
- Valuation support: As more jurisdictions plug BTC and ETH into traditional securities rails, the “institutional core asset” thesis gains further credibility.
In the near term, this is more about signaling than immediate flows. Over a multi year horizon, friendlier tax and exchange access in Japan could become a real driver of incremental demand and corporate adoption, especially if domestic pension funds and insurers eventually gain clear frameworks for crypto exposure.
3. ETF Flows, Whales, and Miners Behind BTC’s $93K Push
Bitcoin extended its rally to a fifth session and briefly topped $93K, but the engine under the hood is very specific: spot ETF demand, whale activity on CEXs like Binance, and a derivatives market that has turned decisively bullish.
Crypto ETPs drew roughly $47.2B of inflows in 2025. The first trading days of 2026 are showing another strong wave of demand, led by IBIT and other large issuers, as allocators top up positions after year end rebalancing.
Flow driven market structure
- Spot ETFs: Consistent net inflows keep a structural bid under BTC, absorbing miner issuance and some speculative selling.
- Whales: On chain and CEX data show large players increasing activity on Binance and other venues, often timing entries around ETF flow spikes.
- Derivatives: Perps and futures open interest have climbed, and funding dynamics indicate a tilt toward leveraged longs rather than organic spot accumulation.
At the same time, there is still limited evidence of broad based retail or DeFi led growth. Activity is picking up, but it’s nowhere near the frenzy seen at prior cycle peaks. That’s both an opportunity and a risk: plenty of dry powder if retail returns, but also vulnerability if the ETF bid slows.
Miners in a new regime
Miners like Cango and peers are operating in a much healthier environment than the immediate post halving months. Prices near $93K put many operators back into strong profitability, with hashprice improving relative to 2024 lows.
Key dynamics for the mining segment:
- Balance sheet repair: Stronger margins give miners room to reduce debt, upgrade fleets, or expand capacity.
- Sell vs. hold decisions: With ETFs absorbing supply, some miners can afford to hold a larger share of mined BTC, amplifying any demand shock.
- Correlation to flows: Miner treasury behavior is increasingly tied to ETF and macro signals rather than just spot price alone.
Investor lens
- The current rally is heavily flow- and derivatives driven, not yet a full cycle mania.
- As long as ETF inflows remain positive, dips may be shallow, but any sustained reversal in flows or macro risk appetite can hit leveraged long positioning hard.
- Mining equities and mining adjacent tokens will increasingly trade as leveraged BTC beta on top of ETF flows and hashprice expectations.
For portfolio construction, this argues for respecting the directional trend while staying conscious that a single narrative – ETF demand – is doing most of the heavy lifting.
Outlook
The first week of 2026 is setting clear contours for the year:
- Flows dominate: Spot ETFs and ETPs remain the primary drivers of BTC direction and volatility, with whales and miners calibrating around that signal.
- Infra & DePIN in focus: Tokens like ESIM and BREV show that exchanges and infra teams are ready to run an aggressive playbook around real world networks and zk middleware.
- Regulation as a tailwind: Japan’s shifting stance adds to a global pattern where major markets are moving from blanket skepticism toward integrated, securities rail-based exposure to crypto.
For investors, the key themes over the coming weeks are:
- Whether ETF inflows can maintain the current pace once early year allocation shifts normalize.
- How quickly DePIN and zk infra projects can translate listing hype into TVL, user growth, and on chain revenues.
- Which jurisdictions follow Japan in pushing for tax clarity and direct exchange based access to BTC, ETH, and select altcoins.
The market is constructive but still fragile. A flows driven rally can extend much further than fundamentals alone would justify, but it also turns quickly when the tape changes. Staying data driven on ETF trends, derivatives positioning, and real usage metrics will be critical to navigating this phase of the cycle.