Airdrop Alpha, ETF Flows, Global Buildout

---

Published: Dec 23, 2025

Welcome back, Token Metrics community.

Market Snapshot

As of December 23, 2025, crypto markets are in a constructive but selective risk‑on mode. Weekly data show roughly $2.5B flowing into crypto investment products, one of the strongest weeks this year, while today’s ETF tape reveals a nuanced rotation: modest inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT even as broader Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen outflows, alongside sizeable inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs that have pushed BlackRock’s ETH product over 1M ETH in holdings. On the micro side, airdrop and points narratives like Lighter continue to drive on‑chain speculation, and regional exchanges such as South Africa’s VALR and European venture activity highlight ongoing structural build‑out beneath the day‑to‑day price noise.

---

Key Takeaways

• Airdrop expectations remain a powerful near‑term alpha driver. Lighter’s rumored token, Polymarket odds, and Hyperliquid’s LIT perps show how prediction markets and perps now front‑run token events.
• Institutional capital is back. Crypto ETPs just logged about $2.5B in weekly inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT still seeing positive flows and spot ETH ETFs attracting fresh demand.
• Rotation is tilting toward ETH. BTC ETFs have seen short‑term outflows while ETH ETFs pulled in over $130M in a single session, pushing BlackRock’s ETH ETF above 1M ETH and strengthening the case for an ETH‑ and L2‑led leg if risk appetite holds.
• Regional and infra build‑out continues. VALR’s strong 2025 in South Africa and Europe’s record tech funding year, including major Web3 rounds, are extending runway for critical crypto infrastructure.
• Airdrop‑related scams are rising. Recent warnings from projects like Pi Network about fake airdrop claims highlight the need to tighten OPSEC and verify all campaigns via official channels.

---

1. Lighter Airdrop Speculation Heats Up as Pre‑TGE Markets Emerge

Lighter, a fast‑growing perp DEX, has become today’s dominant airdrop narrative. A recent report highlighted how speculation around a future Lighter token and airdrop has exploded across both on‑chain activity and prediction markets.

On Polymarket, traders are betting on whether a Lighter airdrop will happen, effectively turning a yes/no governance decision into a tradeable instrument. Open interest suggests the market is assigning a meaningful probability to a token event, even though the team has not announced a TGE or tokenomics.

At the same time, rival perps venue Hyperliquid has listed LIT perpetuals, giving traders a way to express directional views on the Lighter narrative before any spot token exists. These are synthetic markets, but the pricing still encodes collective expectations around future token value and airdrop size.

On‑chain data show Lighter’s usage, OI, and likely TVL climbing as users farm activity in hopes of qualifying for a future distribution. The playbook is familiar from earlier cycles with Blur and LayerZero: high‑intent users lean into product usage, then hope that volume and fees spent are rewarded retroactively.

---

2. VALR’s 2025 Growth Shows the Power of Regional On‑Ramps

South African exchange VALR used its Dec 23 year‑end update to highlight what it calls a “transformative” 2025 for crypto and finance in the region.

The platform reported sharp growth in trading activity and an expanded product suite that now spans spot crypto, derivatives, and a curated set of FX pairs. That puts VALR closer to a multi‑asset brokerage than a pure‑play crypto CEX, positioning it as a gateway for both speculative flows and real‑economy FX needs.

In markets like Africa where banking access and FX rails are still uneven, exchanges that combine crypto liquidity with compliant fiat and FX services can capture significant demand. VALR’s focus on regulatory engagement suggests it wants to be the local partner of choice for institutions and global liquidity providers looking for ZAR exposure.

---

---

3. Europe’s Record Tech Funding Year Backs Crypto Infrastructure

Europe just logged its biggest funding year on record. A Dec 23 year‑in‑review from Tech Funding News highlights multi‑billion‑dollar rounds for frontier‑tech firms such as Helsing and Mistral AI, alongside sizeable Web3 and crypto‑adjacent deals.

For crypto, the signal is clear: late‑stage capital is still flowing into the stack. European VCs remain willing to back:

• L1/L2 and modular infrastructure projects
• Custody, exchange, and brokerage platforms tuned for MiCA‑style regulation
• Compliance, data, and analytics providers that make institutional crypto use safer
• Selective consumer‑facing Web3 apps with real traction

After the 2022–2023 funding winter, a robust 2025 matters. Larger, well‑capitalized infrastructure players are less likely to disappear mid‑cycle, reducing tech and counterparty risk for funds building on or integrating with them. This extended runway increases the odds that key European ecosystems in L2s, RWAs, and regulated DeFi keep shipping features that unlock new on‑chain flows.

For longer‑horizon investors, Europe’s funding boom reinforces a thesis that the continent is becoming a core geography for regulated, institution‑friendly crypto innovation. While individual deal access may be limited to private markets, public‑market proxies—tokens tied to European L2s, compliance tooling, or euro‑stablecoin infrastructure—stand to benefit as the region’s stack matures.

---

Security Note: Airdrop Hype vs. Airdrop Scams

Where there’s airdrop alpha, there’s also airdrop phishing. Alongside legitimate campaigns like Lighter’s speculative farming, projects such as Pi Network have issued urgent warnings about fake “claim” pages, social media accounts, and unsolicited DMs pushing wallet‑draining links.

To stay ahead of the noise:

• Trust URLs, not screenshots. Always navigate to campaigns from a project’s official site or verified social profiles. Avoid links in DMs or group chats.
• Scrutinize permissions. Before signing, read what a transaction or message is requesting. Be extremely wary of unlimited spend approvals or blind signature requests.
• Use dedicated wallets. Separate your farming wallet from long‑term holdings. Consider periodically revoking stale approvals via an allowances dashboard.
• Assume urgency is a red flag. “Claim now or lose everything” is classic social engineering. Legit teams do not expire claims in hours without extensive warning.

Airdrops can be real edge, but in 2025 the biggest risk is often operational rather than market—protect your keys and treat every new campaign as guilty until proven innocent.

---