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Market Update
Publication date: Nov 16, 2025
Welcome back, Token Metrics readers.
As of Nov 16, 2025, crypto markets are in a pronounced risk off phase, with Bitcoin trading below the key $100,000 psychological level and roughly $280B wiped from total market capitalization in recent days. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen over $1.1B in net outflows across the past two sessions, dragging sentiment into extreme fear. Under the surface, flows are more nuanced: Solana spot ETFs continue to attract steady inflows, and major institutions such as Harvard’s endowment and the Scaramucci family are deploying substantial capital into Bitcoin related exposure. Altcoins like XRP and SOL are under short term pressure, but persistent ETF and institutional demand suggest longer horizon investors are using the drawdown to accumulate, even as leveraged traders get flushed out.
Today’s issue breaks down how high conviction players are repositioning while retail sentiment sours.
Key Takeaways
- ETF flows are bifurcating: U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs show more than $1.1B in short term outflows while Solana spot ETFs have quietly racked up 14 straight days of net inflows totaling about $382M, signaling selective institutional risk appetite.
- High profile institutions are buying weakness: Harvard’s endowment has disclosed a roughly $443M position in BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF and the Scaramucci family has committed over $100M to a Bitcoin firm, reinforcing the long term adoption trend despite current volatility.
- New product launches continue to reshape liquidity: Canary Capital’s U.S. spot XRP ETF (XRPC) debuted with $58.6M in first day volume, and Bitget’s Onchain Challenge Phase 27 adds 120,000 BGB in airdrop incentives to pull users into specific on chain ecosystems.
- False alarm triggers buying opportunity: Michael Saylor's swift denial of Bitcoin sale rumors revealed Strategy has been accelerating purchases daily, with new holdings to be disclosed Monday as BTC tests support near $94,000.
- Overall sentiment is bearish in the short term, but the positioning of endowments, family offices, and persistent altcoin ETF inflows suggests that structural demand for major crypto assets remains intact beneath the surface.
1. Michael Saylor Denies Bitcoin Sale Rumors Amid Market Panic
As Bitcoin briefly dipped below $94,000 on Friday, Nov 14, rumors exploded across social media suggesting that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) was selling part of its massive Bitcoin treasury. A flagged 43,415 BTC transaction on Arkham Intelligence fueled widespread fear as markets were already under pressure.
Michael Saylor quickly shut down the speculation in a CNBC interview, stating that the reality was the exact opposite. According to Saylor, Strategy has been:
- “Buying Bitcoin” throughout the downturn
- Accelerating purchases during this dip
- Preparing updated acquisition numbers to be released Monday morning
Arkham later clarified that the large BTC movement was not a sale, but a custodian rotation — Strategy transferring Bitcoin from Coinbase Custody to over 100 newly generated addresses managed by a different custodian. This kind of redistribution is a routine institutional security practice, though it was initially misunderstood by the market.
Saylor emphasized that Strategy’s fortress-style balance sheet includes no liquidation triggers, even if Bitcoin were to drop 80% from current levels. The company now holds 641,692 BTC — worth approximately $62 billion — reaffirming its status as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world.
This event highlights the double-edged nature of blockchain transparency: on-chain visibility is powerful, but without context it can lead to misinformation and unnecessary panic. Once the truth surfaced, Bitcoin recovered above $95,000 and Strategy’s stock (MSTR) rebounded from its intraday low near $201.80.
2. Harvard’s $443M Bitcoin ETF Position Signals Long Horizon Accumulation
While traders obsess over daily ETF outflows, one of the world’s most influential endowments is quietly scaling in. New portfolio disclosures indicate Harvard University’s endowment has accumulated roughly $443M worth of shares in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT.
The timing is notable. The broader crypto market has just erased about $280B in value, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $1.1B in net outflows over the past two sessions. Yet Harvard is building a large, regulated BTC position through ETF rails instead of backing away.
Harvard isn’t alone. Other U.S. institutions, including Emory and several smaller endowments, are being flagged as net buyers of Bitcoin ETFs during this volatility. This points to a growing split between:
- Short term flow traders rotating quickly based on sentiment and macro headlines
- Long horizon allocators using ETF infrastructure to accumulate BTC for 5–10+ year time frames
Over time, allocations like Harvard’s can tighten BTC’s effective float. Coins absorbed into balance sheets of endowments, pensions, and insurance style capital tend to be far less price sensitive. That doesn’t eliminate sharp drawdowns, but it can reduce the frequency of reflexive liquidation spirals driven purely by ETF flows.
For investors, the takeaway is simple: daily ETF numbers capture sentiment, but the bigger story is who owns the underlying. When entities with multi decade horizons choose Bitcoin exposure in size, it validates BTC’s role as a strategic asset rather than a tactical trade.
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3. Bitget Launches Onchain Challenge Phase 27 With 120,000 BGB in Airdrops
Bitget is leaning into on chain engagement while many traders stay sidelined. The exchange has kicked off Onchain Challenge: Phase 27, allocating 120,000 BGB in rewards for users who complete specific tasks across supported ecosystems.
The campaign is part of Bitget’s Universal Exchange (UEX) strategy, designed to blur the line between CEX and DEX activity. To earn BGB, participants typically need to:
- Interact with selected DeFi protocols (swaps, LP, lending, or staking)
- Bridge assets into target networks
- Execute trades or staking operations via Bitget linked infrastructure
Historically, these campaigns have driven short, sharp spikes in TVL and activity for featured protocols. For active on chain users, they function like a structured airdrop program: you complete a clear checklist and receive BGB plus, in some cases, extra incentives such as points or future governance token rights.
Before diving in, investors should treat this like any yield opportunity: estimate the implicit APR by comparing the expected value of BGB rewards (plus any protocol APY or points) against the gas costs, time, and risk. Smart sizing matters. You’re concentrating activity in a curated set of protocols, which introduces smart contract risk, bridge risk, and exchange platform risk. Used selectively, though, campaigns like Phase 27 can be a way to monetize on chain activity you may have done anyway.
4. Scaramucci Family Commits Over $100M to Bitcoin Firm With Political Ties
The Scaramucci family is doubling down on Bitcoin infrastructure. A new report reveals that the family has invested over $100M into a Bitcoin focused company linked to associates of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
The firm concentrates on Bitcoin related services and products, positioning itself at the intersection of U.S. political networks and institutional grade BTC investment vehicles. While the political angle grabs headlines, the crypto native takeaway is that another high profile family office is making a concentrated, nine figure bet in the middle of a choppy market and ongoing ETF outflows.
Flows from family offices and politically connected capital tend to be patient and strategic. They’re often less focused on quarter to-quarter performance and more on owning slices of core infrastructure, distribution, and brand in emerging asset classes.
There are trade offs. Political proximity may help the firm navigate regulation or secure partnerships, but it can also draw scrutiny if U.S. digital asset policy becomes more polarized. For the broader BTC market, though, this is another data point in a trend: structurally sticky capital is acquiring exposure not just to the asset, but to the companies and rails that power it. Over time, that can tighten supply on venues and accelerate adoption when macro conditions turn more supportive.
Market Outlook
The near term backdrop remains risk off. BTC is trading under the six figure mark, altcoins are under pressure, and ETF flows show investors de grossing positions. Leverage is being forced out of the system, particularly in high beta sectors like restaking, points farming, and meme tokens.
Beneath that, however, the market structure continues to mature. Solana spot ETFs have quietly posted 14 straight days of net inflows totaling about $382M, even as Bitcoin products see heavy redemptions. The launch of Canary Capital’s spot XRP ETF (XRPC), with $58.6M in first day volume, shows that demand for regulated exposure to non Bitcoin assets is very real.
At the same time, university endowments, family offices, and specialized funds are scaling into Bitcoin and related infrastructure. Harvard’s IBIT position and the Scaramucci family’s nine figure allocation underscore that long horizon capital is using volatility to build ownership of both BTC and the rails around it.
For investors, this all points to a market where short term price action can be brutal, but structural demand continues to grow. The focus over the coming weeks should be on balance sheet strength, risk management, and tracking where sticky capital is flowing—into ETFs, yield strategies, or infrastructure plays. Token Metrics will keep analyzing on chain data, ETF flows, and token fundamentals to help you navigate this environment with a clear, data driven framework.