Trillion-Dollar Perps and Uptober Surge

Happy Thursday, TM Family!

Welcome to the Token Metrics Research | Daily newsletter, where we cover key market movements, regulatory updates, and early alpha for our readers and investors. 

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Now let's get back to the top stories of the day.

As perpetual futures DEXs continue to dominate on-chain trading, September marked a historic breakthrough with monthly volumes exceeding $1T for the first time, reaching $1.05T, a 48% jump from August's $707.6B.

This surge highlights the sector's rapid growth, driven by increasing competition among key players such as Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter. Aster led the pack with over $420B in volume, bolstered by its BNB Chain focus, a recent rebrand from APX Finance, and a massive endorsement from CZ that sent its ASTER token soaring 10x to a $14B valuation.

Hyperliquid, the custom L1 pioneer that initiated perps in 2023, saw its volume decline 29% to $282.5B, compressing its market share from 56% to around 14% as competitors encroached. Yet, it maintains dominance in open interest at $13.1B, reflecting sticky user loyalty and healthier OI/volume ratios (1.61) compared to Aster's low 0.02.

Lighter, the Ethereum L2 entrant fresh off its public mainnet launch, posted $164.4B in volume with 188K unique accounts and 50K DAUs, teasing zero-fee models that could force fee compression across the board.

For investors, this competition signals maturing perp infrastructure, with potential for airdrops (like Hyperliquid's recent billions) and innovation in features like Aster's hidden orders.

However, watch for sustainability, high volumes tied to farming, and token hype could falter if liquidity dries up. We're monitoring how these platforms evolve, as they capture a growing slice of the $216B derivatives OI pie.

In a bold move that blends traditional finance (tradfi) and cryptocurrency, Avalanche Treasury Co. (AVAT) is going public via a $675M SPAC merger with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp., set to list on Nasdaq as AVAX DAT in early 2026.

This deal, one of the largest crypto-aligned SPACs yet, positions AVAT as a premier vehicle for institutional AVAX exposure, launching with ~$460M in treasury assets and an exclusive $200M discounted AVAX allocation from the Avalanche Foundation.

Backed by heavyweights such as Dragonfly, ParaFi, VanEck, Galaxy, Pantera, CoinFund, and Kraken, AVAT offers entry at 0.77x mNAV, representing a 23% discount to spot AVAX or ETFs.

Led by Wall Street veterans like CEO Bart Smith (formerly of Virtu) and advisors including Emin Gün Sirer and Stani Kulechov, the firm plans to scale its treasury beyond $1B through protocol investments, enterprise partnerships, and validator infrastructure.

This isn't passive holding; it's active integration into Avalanche's network, with an 18-month priority on Foundation sales. Implications are bullish for AVAX, with enhanced liquidity, institutional inflows, and ecosystem momentum as regulators move toward clarity.

Amid Avalanche's rise in enterprise apps, this could catalyze adoption; however, SPAC risks, such as dilution, warrant caution. We view this as a structural win, potentially unlocking billions of dollars in previously locked value.

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Now, let's continue with the top stories of the day.

October's "Uptober" narrative is gaining momentum for Bitcoin, historically its strongest month, with average gains of +20%, as macroeconomic tailwinds align. With a 99% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on Oct. 29 (according to CME FedWatch), amid weak jobs data (-32K private payrolls in September) and a potential government shutdown, liquidity expectations are soaring.

BTC has climbed 5% YTD to ~$118K, resilient despite $2B in long liquidations last week, while open interest hits $216B and futures OI reaches a record $32.6B, signaling bullish conviction. Compounding this, BlackRock's IBIT ETF broke into the top 20 by AUM at $90.7B, logging its most significant inflow since mid-August. ($405.5M), part of $2.3B+ in spot crypto ETF inflows this week.

Overall, BTC ETFs saw $675.8M daily net flows, pushing YTD to $61B+. This institutional ramp-up, alongside Ether's 30% YTD surge to $4.3K, positions crypto as a hedge in fiscal uncertainty and a high-beta play in risk-on environments.

Predictions vary: Grayscale eyes new highs for BTC, ETH, and SOL in Q4 if the Senate advances market structure bills; Ledn forecasts $ 145,000 BTC by year-end. Risks include a hawkish Fed pivot or policy gridlock, but softening USD and a steady economy favor upside. We're overweight in BTC here, viewing dips to $100K as opportunities to enter a potential supercycle.

Beyond majors, several developments highlight maturing infrastructure and adoption. DoubleZero's mainnet-beta launch integrates 22% of staked SOL, utilizing fiber routes for faster validator communication to reduce latency and enhance TPS/sync. Backed by Jump, Galaxy, and Jito, its 2Z token rewards utility, with plans to expand beyond Solana, is a key upgrade for high-throughput chains amid congestion debates.

Meanwhile, Tom Lee's BitMine widened its ETH treasury lead, stacking 2.65M ETH ($11B value) after a $961M buy, plus 192 BTC and $436M cash, totaling $11.6B holdings. Aiming for 5% of the ETH supply (6M+ tokens), this underscores corporate adoption in a "supercycle" narrative, potentially stabilizing ETH amid its 12% off its ATH.

Finally, SWIFT tapped Consensys for a blockchain ledger prototype with 30+ banks (e.g., JPM, DBS), enabling 24/7 cross-border payments via tokenized value and smart contracts.

Interoperable with legacy systems, this extends SWIFT's reach to 200+ countries, accelerating digital finance scalability. These threads point to deeper integration: Solana's performance enhancements, Ethereum's treasury appeal, and traditional finance's blockchain adoption.

For natives, watch for yield opportunities in staking/treasuries and payment rails disrupting remittances; our research flags these as high-conviction themes for 2026.

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That's all for today. Let's talk tomorrow.