Welcome to this week’s Token Metrics newsletter where we distill key insights from our latest premium webinar hosted by Ian Balina. Here, we delve into the current market dynamics, notable projects, investment strategies, and emerging threats in the crypto space.
Market Dynamics
We’ve observed that the market is currently navigating through a bearish phase, characterized by risk-off sentiment. The price action typically follows phases of flat movement, rallies, and corrections. It’s essential to recognize that everyone’s cost basis varies based on their market entry points.
Spotlight on Peaq
We’re particularly bullish on Peaq, especially for early investors from the Coinlist sale, with its launch imminent in the next week or two. Peaq has made significant strides with updates, including centralized exchange integrations, stablecoin support (USDT tether), wallet address collection for the Token Generation Event (TGE), an airdrop for early adopters, and a developing DEX. Key integrations accomplished so far include Ledger, Fireblocks, and Gnosis Safe.
Current Market Challenges
The bearish market conditions have impacted projects, such as Astra, down 93%. Despite these challenges, efforts like KYC and onboarding processes for launchpads continue. Additionally, we’re pursuing legal opinions for exchanges (TMAI).
Token Metrics DAO
In organizational news, we’re pleased to announce that Token Metrics DAO is now fully registered and approved as a for-profit DAO in the Marshall Islands.
VIP Group Initiatives
Our VIP group remains focused on running Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), sharing investment deals, and reducing investment thresholds due to market conditions. SPVs are designed with long-term venture capitalist investors in mind. An example of a recent investment is Vana, an AI Layer 1 project with a long vesting period. We’re adjusting the frequency of deal sharing and refining investment allocation rules to better navigate the market.
Investment Advice
Given the market volatility, our recommendation is to focus on large caps for their conservative potential gains of 15-20x. Sectors of interest include AI, Layer 1, Web3, infrastructure, and DeepTech. Notable projects to watch are Helium, and Peaq.
Ian Balina’s Investment Strategy
Ian continues to emphasize long-term value investing, inspired by notable investors like Warren Buffett and Howard Marks. His approach focuses on buying undervalued assets and patiently waiting. Although he occasionally employs technical analysis for short-term trades, his primary strategy involves long-term investments, particularly in early-stage projects, with significant returns in mind.
Project Analysis: Ohm
Ohm saw its peak performance in late 2021 but has struggled since. Despite a recent minor recovery, it isn’t performing strongly. Current market sentiment around Ohm remains bearish despite its favorable tokenomics.
Potential Crypto Market Threats
We identify regulation and economic factors as prominent threats to the crypto market. Unfavorable regulations and macroeconomic issues, such as those concerning the Japanese yen, could disrupt potential bull runs. Ian assesses a less than 50% chance (around 20%) that these factors will thwart a bull run entirely.
Current Sentiment and Investment Plans
Both investors and venture capitalists exhibit high concern regarding the future of the market. However, Ian maintains a subtle optimism. He’s currently not planning to accumulate more projects due to the extensive investments already made. His fund, having backed over 40 projects, is now in a phase of waiting for these investments to become liquid. Reallocation of underperforming investments to more profitable opportunities is being considered.
Transparency and Portfolio
We prioritize transparency, with our fund portfolio publicly accessible for review. This aligns with our commitment to trust and openness with our community.
Research Highlights and Hidden Gems
Recent research has unveiled promising sectors and projects, including derivatives exchanges, gaming platforms, and AI ventures.
- Community Games
- Live Art
- Overlay
- Pentagon Games
- Flock
are also noteworthy for their innovative approaches in their respective domains.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the market remains cautious and bearish, but opportunities for strategic investments still exist. We continue to analyze and share insights on promising projects while emphasizing a long-term, value-driven approach. Stay tuned for more updates, and thank you for being part of our informed community.
Best,
The Token Metrics Team
