The Next Stage and a Look to the Future | Navigator

The Next Stage and a Look to the Future | Navigator

Review Date: June 18, 2022

Token Metrics Navigator

Market Update: The Next Stage and a Look to the Future

Total Crypto Market Cap: Weekly

Total Crypto Market cap is now close to $815 billion. TOTAL has room to fall another $200 billion before reaching support at $614 billion. This is one of the more “constructive” charts out there, implying the crypto market as a whole is close to support. That said, if TOTAL fell below $614 billion, there could be a more devastating move to $423 billion.

Ethereum: 89 minute chart

$997 feels like a critical level in Ethereum. If ETH falls below that level and stays below that level, the next downside target could be $823 and eventually $385. If ETH could hold above $1,041, then ETH could stabilize.

Support and Resistance Levels for ETH based on the hidden pivot method and Gann work are shown below.

ETH Resistance Levels

$1390

$1,220

$1,170

$1060

Data as of 06/17/2022

Past performance not indicative of future returns

ETH Support Levels

$960

$823

$770

$350

Data as of 06/17/2022

Past performance not indicative of future returns

Bitcoin: 89 Minute Chart

$18,698 is an important level for bitcoin. If BTC is below that level, the near-term downside targets would be $16,700 and then $14,400.

Below are additional support and resistance levels for BTC. These levels were derived from the hidden pivot method and Gann analysis.

BTC Resistance Levels

$25,300

$23,000

$22,300

$21,700

Data as of 06/17/2022

Past performance not indicative of future returns

BTC Support Levels

$19,400

$18,600
$16,700

$14,200
Data as of 06/18/2022

Past performance not indicative of future returns

2022 Road Map for BTC and ETH

Here’s an updated road map for ETH and BTC for the balance of 2022.

Jun 20 – Jul 5: Major crypto crash begins. June 24 could be a mega crash day with BTC moving to either 14k or 10k.

Jul 5 – Jul 24: Stocks start crashing. BTC could go below 10k before bouncing.

Jul 24 – Aug 9: Best time for vacation

Aug 9 – Aug 29 “Rektember” starts in August; stETH depeg.

Sept 9 – Nov 5 – Massive crash in BTC and stocks, Saylor, Musk, Cathie Wood liquidated, ETH sub $500. BTC sub 3k

Nov 5 – Dec 31: An epic crypto rally begins. BTC: 30K, ETH 2.5k

Data as of 06/18/2022

Past performance not indicative of future returns

Solana: 89 Minute Chart

Solana has been outperforming of late. It may not make sense to celebrate the temporary outperformance of any one coin as this down move could accelerate rapidly. If SOL breaks below 28.66, the minimum downside target could be 21.

I believe most big coins will go back to where our AI originally picked them during the last bull run. For SOL, that is about $2.5. Venture capitalists must sell before these coins return to their entry prices.

Dollar Index (DXY): Daily Chart

DXY held support at 103. If DXY moves above 106, then DXY could rally to 111. If DXY moved to 111, that would likely mean the Euro and Yen have collapsed. (Think Euro and Yen down, Dollar up.) The ongoing rally in the Dollar could be toxic for bitcoin.

COIN: 4h Chart

Looking at the chart of Coinbase (COIN), the recent failure at resistance at $72 may be a significant development. The alligator moving average system appears as it did in January, April, and May last year. In each of those cases, significant declines in Coinbase ensued. If COIN continues to slip, the downside target could be $11. Working backward, where would BTC and ETH be if COIN went from $50 to $11.

Goldman Sachs: 4H Chart

On Friday, Goldman Sachs (GS) closed below $295. The next downside objective for GS is 229. If such a move occurred, that would be a decline of 20%. Point: Contagion and losses from bad debt or bad trading positions will eventually leak over into the legacy world. Luna, Celsius, and 3AC are just the beginning. Finally, there will be legacy versions of LUNA, Celsius, and 3AC. This will impact the banks in the legacy system, such as GS.

Bottom Line: The liquidation of all leverage is unfolding. Over half of the crypto hedge funds will be liquidated and out of business. Currently, the crypto market is tracking the timeline of the 1929 crash. We expect severe downside pressure in the market next week. One month from now, bitcoin could be at $10,000, and ETH could be at $350. Even if you do not think that outcome is likely, we suggest you protect your capital as if it could happen.

ZEC: Visual Trends Indicator

At the recent Consensus conference in Austin, Edward Snowden made a critical use for crypto to be used as money, not as an investment vehicle. He mentioned Z-Cash specifically and said that ZEC could be an alternative to BTC, which has no privacy feature.

Looking at the Token Metrics chart of ZEC, the original Token Metrics buy signal was at $35.77 back in April 2020. If ZEC reaches that level, it may make sense to start a DCA strategy.

Here is an additional video on Snowden and ZEC.

Bottom Line 2: Ensure you preserve capital to take advantage of the liquidation in crypto and stocks. Crypto is going a lot lower than anybody imagines. Most crypto may return to where the last rally started in July 2020. Do NOT underestimate the severity of this crash. In our view, this is not crypto winter. It is a sudden and brutal mass liquidation event. It will also be a massive opportunity to buy the next big narrative: privacy.