In this newsletter, we will go through the top weekly performances of the Token Metrics indices, the top TM grades, and how they performed over the past week. The second section of this newsletter will look into which coins are being picked most often for the upcoming week in the Token Metrics indices, and that week’s top rated coins as well.
Market Review
The crypto market suffered big losses in the month of January, with the total crypto market cap losing over $500 billion in value to reach the $1.7 trillion level, as shown in Figure 1 below. This level held support during the past month as some coins had a relief rally over the past week. In fact, some altcoins had good weekly gains, like Synthetix (+41%), Flow (+30%), and assorted metaverse tokens like Sandbox (+28%) and Decentraland (+25%). One of the biggest losers from the past week is Luna (-28%), which is now down 50% from it’s ATH in December 2021.
Figure 1: The Crypto Market Cap
Data as of 01/31/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Market Regime
We have built multiple market signals at Token Metrics that help identify the prevailing trend and strength of momentum for a given digital asset. In Figure 2 below, we show our TM grade indicator applied to the total crypto market cap, which is built by looking at the proportion of coins that have a low TM grade compared to coins with high TM grades. When the majority have a low TM grade, it signals that the market is likely to be in a bearish regime. Figure 3 below also shows our breakout indicator as applied on the top 100 coins. The red clouds signifies that we have many more coins breaking below support than coins breaking above resistance, which also signifies a bearish environment.
We can see from Figure 2 that the TM market indicator is still bearish on the total market since reaching the $2.75 trillion level, as we still have more coins with low TM grades in the top 100 coins by market cap. Figure 3 also shows that almost every coin in the top 100 has broken below its previous support levels, confirming the overall long-term bearish trend.
Figure 2: TM Grade Market Indicator
Data as of 01/31/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Figure 3: TM Breakout Market Indicator
Data as of 01/31/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
TM Performance
With some coins having a relief rally, the daily TM indices were able to capture good opportunities and generate good weekly gains. In fact, both the Daily Binance High-Cap and the Daily Kucoin High-Cap indices had double-digit weekly gains. Shown in Figure 4 and 5 below, we can see today’s allocation and performance of these indices.
Figure 4: Kucoin Daily High-Cap Index
Data as of 01/31/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Figure 5: Binance Daily High-Cap index
Data as of 01/31/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
TM Grade Analysis
Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) has been showing up in the TM indices over the past week due to a good TM grade. As shown in Figure 6 below, we can see how the TM grade evolved over time compared to the price of the token, and when (in green) was the first time this token was allocated in the TM indices.
Figure 6: Kyber Crystal Network TM Grade
Data as of 01/31/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
The TM grade is a great tool to identify coins that have strong bullish momentum, especially when the market is plunged in uncertainty and the big coins are performing poorly. In fact, as shown in Figure 7 below, the TM grade was able to flag a few tokens that performed well when most tokens had negative weekly returns.
Figure 7: Top Performers by TM Grade
| Coin | TM Grade | Date of Grade | ROI |
| Crypterium | 80 | 01/24 | + 180% |
| Quanstamp | 80 | 01/24 | + 127% |
| Kyber Network Crystal | 80 | 01/24 | + 28% |
| Universe.XYZ | 86 | 01/24 | + 28% |
| Arcblock | 85 | 01/24 | + 13% |
Data as of 01/31/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
TM Visual Trend Indicator
The visual trend indicator on TokenMetrics.com is a tool to identify the reigning price momentum for individual coins based on technical analysis. It is a good risk management tool as it turns bearish during market downturns and bullish during strong bull trends. The coins in the top 10 by market cap are all still bearish in their Low-Frequency Trend indicator, as shown in Figure 8 below. In addition, Figure 9 shows the actual performance of the most recent signal for these top coins.
Figure 8: Visual Trend Indicator for top 10 coins
Data as of 01/31/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Figure 9: Visual Trend Indicator on top 10
| Coin | Signal | Price at Signal | Current Price | Savings/Losses |
| BTC | Bearish | 56,200 | 37,700 | + 33% |
| ETH | Bearish | 4,140 | 2,600 | + 37% |
| BNB | Bearish | 560 | 380 | + 32% |
| ADA | Bearish | 2.13 | 1.04 | + 51% |
| XRP | Bearish | 1.1 | 0.59 | + 46% |
| SOL | Bearish | 190 | 95 | + 50% |
| LUNA | Bearish | 65 | 50 | + 23% |
| DOT | Bearish | 41 | 18.5 | + 55% |
| DOGE | Bearish | 0.23 | 0.14 | + 39% |
| AVAX | Bearish | 87.4 | 68 | + 22% |
Data as of 01/31/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Looking ahead
Looking at the current indices allocation, we can also see that the most popular coin recommended by the AI this week is Kyber Network Crystal Legacy. Other popular coins in the TM indices currently are Synthetix, Pax Gold, Crypterium, and Arcblock.
