Weekly Index Performance – January 10th, 2022

In this newsletter, we will go through the top weekly performances of the Token Metrics Indices, the top TM grades, and how they performed over the past week. The second section of this newsletter will look into which coins are being picked most often for the upcoming week in the Token Metrics indices, and the top rated coins for the upcoming week.

Market Review

Over the past week, the total crypto market cap dropped by over 10% and reached the $2 trillion level for the first time since October 2021, pushing the market sentiment into fear. The bleed spread across the entire market, as only 6 out of the top 100 coins by market cap had positive weekly returns, mainly ICP (+28%), LINK (+24%) and OSMO (+23%).

In fact, all of the top 10 coins by market cap excluding stablecoins had double digits weekly losses, with BTC (-13%) reaching $40,000 and ETH (-20%) reaching $3,000 for the first time since September. Figure 1 below shows the change in size of the crypto market in blue and the market dominance of Bitcoin in green. We can see from this chart that Bitcoin dominance has been increasing since the start of January, while it’s market cap has been decreasing. This shows that altcoins have been hit harder than Bitcoin during this market downturn.

Figure 1: The Crypto Market Cap

Data as of 01/10/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Market Regime

At Token Metrics, we have built multiple market signals that help identify the prevailing trend and strength of momentum. In figure 2 below, we show our TM grade indicator applied on the total crypto market cap, which is built by looking at the proportion of coins that have a low TM grade compared to coins with high TM grades. When the majority have a low TM grade, it signals that the market is likely to be in a bearish regime. In addition, figure 3 below shows our breakout indicator applied on the top 100 coins. The red clouds signifies that we have many more coins breaking below support than coins breaking above resistance, which also signifies a bearish environment.

We can see from figure 2 that the TM market indicator is still bearish on the total market since the $2.75 trillion level, as we still have more coins with low TM grades in the top 100 coins by market cap. In fact, 85 out of the top 100 coins by market cap have a bearish grade below 40. In addition, figure 3 shows that most coins in the top 100 are trading near a support level with an increasing number of coins breaking below their support levels, confirming the overall bearish trend of the market.

Figure 2: TM Grade Market Indicator

Data as of 01/10/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Figure 3: TM Breakout Market Indicator

Data as of 01/10/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Indices Performance

As the overwhelming majority of the market was down over the past week, holding any of the big coins would have resulted in significant losses, with the exception of Chainlink, Cosmos, Near, and Internet Computer (ICP). The TM indices were not safe from the big market downturn, however diversification and TM grades helped reduce the losses and on some occasions even have significant gains over the past week.

In fact, from the daily, high-cap indices, the average 7-day return was -1%, with the worst being uniswap (-13%). Figure 4 below shows the performance of the shorter-term All-exchange indices and the Kucoin indices over the past week. In addition, figure 5 shows the returns of these indices on a daily basis since the start of January. The strong performance of these indices was mainly due to big allocation to AXIA coin (+37% today) and Chrono.Tech (+54% today).

Figure 4: All-Exchange and Kucoin Indices

Data as of 01/10/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Figure 5: Daily returns of Weekly All-Exchange and Kucoin High-Cap indices

Data as of 01/10/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance

TM Grade

The TM grade is a great tool to identify coins that have strong bullish momentum. The TM grade was able to identify coins that had a good performance over the past week. Shown in Figure 6 below are the top five coins that had a high TM grade and had a good ROI up to today.

Figure 6: Top Performers by TM Grade

Data as of 01/10/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

To see how and when the TM indices started picking some of these winning coins, figure 7 below shows the time-series of the TM grade in blue compared to price in red, as well as when this coin was picked by our indices in green. For AXIA coin (AXC), the coin was getting picked by our indices consistently since it was trading at $2, and it was held all the way till today, where the price is at $8. For chrono.tech (TIME), the coin started appearing in our indices as of January 2nd, where the coin was trading at $185, and has been held everyday till today, where the coin is trading at $385.

Figure 7: TM Grade vs. Price and Index allocation date

Axia Coin

Chrono.Tech

Data as of 01/10/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Looking ahead

On tokenmetrics.com, we show the best TM graded coins per sector as shown below in figure 8.

Figure 8: Highest TM Grade per sector

Data as of 01/10/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance

For this coming week, Figure 9 below shows the top rated coins by TM grade, filtered by exchange.

Figure 9: Best TM grades for each exchange

Data as of 01/10/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Looking at the current indices allocation, we can also see that the most popular coins in the TM indices for this coming week is Chainlink. Other popular coins in the TM indices currently are AXIA coin, Cosmos, chrono.tech, and Harmony.