In this newsletter, we will go through the top weekly performances of the Token Metrics Indices, the top TM grades, and how they performed over the past week. The second section of this newsletter will look into which coins are being picked most often for the upcoming week in the Token Metrics indices, and the top rated coins for the upcoming week.
Market Review
The broad sentiment of uncertainty continued over the past week, as the total crypto market cap ranged between $2 and $2.2 Trillion. The weekly performances were mixed, as only BNB (+8%), ADA (+27%), LUNA (+9%), DOT (+3%), DOGE (+13%) and SHIB (+5%) had positive weekly returns in the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins. In fact, both BTC (-1%) and ETH (+0.8%) erased their weekly gains today during this wide-range trading environment.
Figure 1 below shows the change in size of the total crypto market cap (in trillions). We can see the strong downtrend that has been continuing over the past couple months, as we are currently 30% below the highs in November 2021.
Figure 1: The Crypto Market Cap
Data as of 01/18/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Market Regime
At Token Metrics, we have built multiple market signals that help identify the prevailing trend and strength of momentum. In figure 2 below, we show our TM grade indicator applied on the total crypto market cap, which is built by looking at the proportion of coins that have a low TM grade compared to coins with high TM grades. When the majority have a low TM grade, it signals that the market is likely to be in a bearish regime. In addition, figure 3 below shows our breakout indicator applied on the top 100 coins. The red clouds signifies that we have many more coins breaking below support than coins breaking above resistance, which also signifies a bearish environment.
We can see from figure 2 that the TM market indicator is still bearish on the total market since the
$2.75 trillion level, as we still have more coins with low TM grades in the top 100 coins by market cap. In fact, 87 out of the top 100 coins by market cap have a bearish grade below 40. In addition, figure 3 shows that most coins in the top 100 are trading near a support level with an increasing number of coins breaking below their support levels, confirming the overall bearish trend of the market.
Figure 2: TM Grade Market Indicator
Data as of 01/18/2022- Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Figure 3: TM Breakout Market Indicator
Data as of 01/18/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Indices Performance
Given a wide-range trading environment over the past week, most coins erased their weekly gains and had negative 7-day returns. The TM indices did not have strong weekly performances, however, due to good picks like Harmony (+12%), Osmosis (+9%), and the broad allocation to low-risk coins like Tether Gold and Stablecoins, the losses were reduced.
In fact, from the weekly, high-cap indices, only 2 out of the 13 exchanges had positive returns, while the rest had negative weekly returns not exceeding -6%. Figure 4 below shows the weekly performance of these indices.
Figure 4: Weekly, High-Cap Indices Performance
| Exchange | 7-Day Return |
| All-Exchange | – 3% |
| Binance | – 2% |
| Pancakeswap | – 4% |
| Uniswap | – 5% |
| Kucoin | – 2% |
| Coinbase | – 4% |
| Kraken | + 3% |
| Bittrex | – 6% |
| Crypto.com | – 3% |
| FTX | 0 % |
| Gate | – 5% |
Data as of 01/18/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
TM Grade
The TM grade is a great tool to identify coins that have strong bullish momentum. The TM grade was able to identify coins that had a good performance over the past week. Shown in Figure 5 below are the top five coins that had a high TM grade and had a good ROI up to today.
Figure 5: Top Performers by TM Grade
| Coin | TM Grade | Date of Grade | ROI |
| Paint Swap | 88 | 01/11 | + 124% |
| Secret | 87 | 01/11 | + 59% |
| Cream | 85 | 01/11 | + 42% |
| Kava | 86 | 01/11 | + 26% |
| GMX | 88 | 01/11 | + 20% |
Data as of 01/18/2021 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
To see how and when the TM grade started flagging some of these winning coins, figure 6 below shows the time-series of the TM grade in blue compared to price in red. We show the plots for Kava, Secret and Cream where the TM grade was high before the rally.
Figure 6: TM Grade vs. Price
Kava
Secret Network
Cream Finance
Data as of 01/18/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Looking ahead
On tokenmetrics.com, we show the best TM graded coins per sector as shown below in figure 7.
Figure 7: Highest TM Grade per sector
| Sector | Best Coin | TM Grade |
| DeFi | cUSDC | 92 |
| Dexe | Anyswap | 88 |
| Gaming | Phantasma | 75 |
| Metaverse | Rainicorn | 76 |
| NFT | Ecomi | 87 |
Data as of 01/18/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
For this coming week, Figure 8 below shows the top rated coins by TM grade, filtered by exchange.
Figure 8: Best TM grades for each exchange
| Exchange | Coins |
| Binance | NEAR, ROSE, KNC, CHR, ANY |
| Coinbase | PRO, ADA, ATOM, RGT, NCT |
| Uniswap | cDAI, METIS, BTSG, SWAP, XSGD |
| Kucoin | USDJ, NEAR, ROSE, PLU, BUX |
Data as of 01/18/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Looking at the current indices allocation, we can also see that the most popular coins in the TM indices for this coming week is Chainlink. Other popular coins in the TM indices currently are Harmony, Cosmos, Near, Metis, Pax Gold and Tether Gold.
