Weekly Index Performance – January 5th, 2022

In this newsletter, we will go through the top weekly performances of the Token Metrics Indices, the top TM grades, and how they performed over the past week. The second section of this newsletter will look into which coins are being picked most often for the upcoming week in the Token Metrics indices, and the top rated coins for the upcoming week.

Performance Review

For the last week of 2021, the total crypto market cap finished around the $2.3 trillion level, with Bitcoin finishing the year below $50K and Ethereum below $4K. The last week of December was tough for the big cryptocurrencies, as all of the top 10 coins by market cap had negative 7-day returns, with Solana having the largest loss (-13%). On the other hand, some coins proved to be uncorrelated to the big coins in the market, at least for the past week. In fact, out of the top 100 coins, only 10% had double digits weekly gains, most notably YFI (+33%), ATOM (+20%) and SUSHI (+17%). Figure 1 below shows the size of the market since January 1st 2021, as well as BTC dominance, which is currently at a low of 37%.

Figure 1: The Crypto Market Cap

Data as of 01/03/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

As mentioned above, the majority of the market was down over the past week, with the exception of a few assets that broke out on the upside. We could be seeing a change in market environment and a shift towards asset selection strategies rather than having exposure to the market by holding the big coins. To see how the TM Indices reacted and performed during the past week, the table below shows the performance of the best index by its corresponding exchange. As shown, the TM indices had a very good week, which means that the indices were able to pick some winners out of the entire market. To dive deeper, figure 3 below shows the daily returns of the All-Exchange, Weekly, High-Cap index as well as it’s allocation that led to the 33% weekly gain. As shown, the index had big weekly winners: GFARM2 (+114 %), and RAIDER (+175 %).

Figure 2: Best weekly performance of TM indices

Data as of 01/03/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Figure 3: Daily returns of Weekly All-Exchange High-Cap index and it’s allocation

Data as of 01/03/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance

TM Grade

The TM grade is a great tool to identify coins that have strong bullish momentum. The TM grade was able to identify coins that had a good performance over the past week. Shown in Figure 4 below are the top five coins that had a high TM grade and had a good ROI up to today.

Figure 4: Top Performers by TM Grade

Data as of 01/03/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance

To see how and when the TM indices started picking some of these winning coins, figure 5 below shows the time-series of the TM grade in blue compared to price in red, as well as when this coin was picked by our indices in green. For MahaDAO, the coin was picked by our indices when it was trading below $4, and it was held all the way till today, where the price is at $9.

Figure 5: TM Grade vs. Price and Index allocation date

Data as of 01/03/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Market Regime

At Token Metrics, we have built multiple market signals that help identify the prevailing trend and strength of momentum. In figure 6 below, we show our TM grade indicator applied on the total crypto market cap, which is built by looking at the proportion of coins that have a low TM grade compared to coins with high TM grades. When the majority have a low TM grade, it signals that the market is likely to be in a bearish regime. In addition, figure 7 below shows our breakout indicator applied on the top 100 coins. The red clouds signifies that we have many more coins breaking below support than coins breaking above resistance, which also signifies a bearish environment.

We can see from figure 6 that the TM market indicator is still bearish on the total market since the

$2.75 Trillion level, as we still have more coins with low TM grades in the top 100 coins by market cap. In addition, figure 7 shows that most coins in the top 200 are still trading below resistance and near support, signifying that most coins are trading in a range and are yet to breakout.

Figure 6: TM Grade Market Indicator

Data as of 01/03/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Figure 7: TM Breakout Market Indicator

Data as of 01/03/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Looking ahead

On tokenmetrics.com, we show the best TM graded coins per sector as shown below in figure 8.

Figure 8: Highest TM Grade per sector

Data as of 01/03/2022 – Past performance is not indicative of future performance

For this coming week, Figure 9 below shows the top rated coins by TM grade, filtered by exchange.

Figure 9: Best TM grades for each exchange

Data as of 01/03/2022– Past performance is not indicative of future performance

Looking at the current indices allocation, we can also see that the most popular coins in the TM indices for this coming week is SUSHI. Other popular coins in the TM indices currently are MATIC, ATOM, and HNT.