Is it a Dip, a Top, or a Range? | Market Update
Dollar Index (DXY): Daily
The Dollar Index (DXY) rallied on 7/26. This development hurt crypto.
Total Crypto Market Cap: Weekly
In Total Crypto Marketcap (TOTAL), $922 billion seems like good support. After Monday’s decline, it’s hard to be bearish with BTC on top of a support level.
On the bitcoin 4-hour chart, $20,800 is the 62% retracement of the recent rally. This support level seems solid. Even though the action on 7/25 was scary, support seems good. If this level holds, then BTC may be able to rally above the recent high.
Ethereum: 4-hour chart
In Ethereum, $1,414 and $1,256 are good support levels.
Bitcoin: Monthly Chart
On the monthly bitcoin chart, July shows up as a Pi-cycle bottom. This signal may imply a bottom is in, and BTC may fall into a range.
July is a Pi-cycle bottom in Ethereum. The 2017 high at $1,529 will be a key level. ETH will likely have to close above that level to be stable in August. $1,224 supports. That level is the 76% retracement of the 2020 – 2021 rally.
There could be one more rally to a new high for this move. The U.S. economy is likely already in a recession. So, any future Fed tightening moves will likely crush inflation. This will set up a “Fed pivot” where the Fed will eventually acknowledge weakness in the economy and end the rate hike cycle in September.
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